Middle East in Transition: The Waning Influence of Israel and the American Dilemma

Israel, long perceived as the sharp instrument of Western policy in the Middle East, has traditionally relied on the unwavering support of the United States. However, recent shifts in the geopolitical landscape and growing internal challenges within the U.S. have caused a perceptible reluctance from Washington to extend the same level of support.   The United States, grappling with unprecedented debt levels and economic fatigue, is quietly withdrawing from global entanglements. Its increasing protectionism has strained relations with key partners like China and the EU, reflecting a shift toward introspective policymaking rather than global policing.   As the American institutional structure faces mounting pressure, its historical alliances may begin to fracture. Meanwhile, Israel’s continued regional aggression, framed as national defense, has lost credibility both globally and even among sections of the American public. This has eroded its moral standing and diplomatic leverage.   In contrast, Iran presents a different legacy—an ancient civilization with deep-rooted ideological unity. While often portrayed as a threat, Iran’s regional influence is not solely built on military power but also on its cultural and religious cohesion across borders.   Attempting to confront Iran militarily could prove more costly and less effective than engagement through diplomacy. The Iranian state, despite its 1979 political shift, maintains strategic depth and long-term resilience.   The Israeli lobby in the U.S. appears determined to prompt one last large-scale American intervention. However, whether the U.S. will yield to this pressure or choose a more pragmatic path will become clearer in the weeks ahead.   In today’s world, sustainable influence comes not from domination but from justice, credibility, and predictability—hallmarks of true soft power.

Editor